The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) has completed a report that provides details about climate change in the Arctic. The report represents one of the most comprehensive updates on Arctic conditions since the organization released a similar assessment in 2005. The AMAP produced the report for the eight nations—the United States, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland, and Russia—it advises on threats to the Arctic environment.
According to the Associated Press, the AMAP report shatters some of the 2007 forecasts made by the UN's expert panel on climate change. Sea ice on the Arctic Ocean is shrinking faster than what the UN panel had predicted, and summer ice coverage is at record lows. The AMAP predicts that the Arctic Ocean in summer will be nearly ice free within 30-40 years.
Warming Temperatures
The AMAP report, according to the Associated Press, states that Arctic temperatures in the past six years have been the highest since 1880, when measurements began. And clear evidence of the effects of these temperature changes has been most apparent in the last five years.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the greatest increase in surface air temperatures is occurring in the fall—in areas where the sea ice is disappearing by the end of summer. This results in the sea absorbing more of the sun's energy. The extra energy is then released as heat in the fall, which further warms the lower atmosphere. In addition, changes related to land snow cover are occurring at the highest rate in the spring. Land surfaces are warming earlier and to a greater degrees, which is accelerating early snow melt and, subsequently, helping to increase temperatures.
Rising Oceans
The UN panel failed not only in accurately projecting the rate of Arctic ice melt, but they also underestimated how much the sea levels could rise, a global concern because of the potential catastrophic impact on island nations and coastal cities. According to the Associated Press, the melting of Arctic ice, which includes glaciers, ice caps, and Greenland's massive ice sheet, could help raise the global sea levels as much as 90-160 centimeters (35-63 inches) by the end of the century. The UN panel had projected a rise of 19-59 centimeters (7-23 inches).
The Los Angeles Times reports that the enormous amount of melting ice could also alter the sea currents that regulate climate. The AMAP report estimates that an extra 7700 cubic kilometers of freshwater have been added to the Arctic Ocean in recent years, an amount equal to a meter of water across the entire land surface of Australia. Sources of Arctic freshwater include river discharge, rain and snow fall, and melting ice, all of which could alter large-scale ocean currents that impact the climate on a continental scale.
Predicting the exact consequences of rising sea levels can be difficult because winds, currents, and other forces make sea levels vary globally, but places like Florida, Bangladesh, and other low-lying areas and coastal cities will most likely be hit the hardest. Even so, the ice continues to melt and the oceans continue to rise, as governments continue to argue about whether the changes are due to natural variances or whether they're occurring at all.
R.H. Sheldon - A number of years ago, long before I moved to the Northwest, I hitchhiked with a friend across Washington state to northern Idaho. We got ...
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